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 time series analysis


Bridging Time and Linguistics: LLMs as Time Series Analyzer through Symbolization and Segmentation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recent studies reveal that Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit strong sequential reasoning capabilities, allowing them to replace specialized time-series models and serve as foundation models for complex time-series analysis. To activate the capabilities of LLMs for time-series tasks, numerous studies have attempted to bridge the gap between time series and linguistics by aligning textual representations with time-series patterns. However, it is a non-trivial endeavor to losslessly capture the infinite time-domain variability using natural language, leading to suboptimal alignment performance. Beyond representation, contextual differences, where semantics in time series are conveyed by consecutive points, unlike in text by individual tokens, are often overlooked by existing methods. To address these, we propose S2TS-LLM, a simple yet effective framework to repurpose LLMs for universal time series analysis through the following two main paradigms: (i) a spectral symbolization paradigm transforms time series into frequency-domain representations characterized by a fixed number of components and prominent amplitudes, which enables a limited set of symbols to effectively abstract key frequency features; (ii) a contextual segmentation paradigm partitions the sequence into blocks based on temporal patterns and reassigns positional encodings accordingly, thereby mitigating the structural mismatch between time series and natural language.


TIME-IMM: ADataset and Benchmark for Irregular Multimodal Multivariate Time Series

Neural Information Processing Systems

Time series data in real-world applications such as healthcare, climate modeling, and finance are often irregular, multimodal, and messy, with varying sampling rates, asynchronous modalities, and pervasive missingness. However, existing benchmarks typically assume clean, regularly sampled, unimodal data, creating a significant gap between research and real-world deployment. We introduce TIME-IMM, a dataset specifically designed to capture cause-driven irregularity in multimodal multivariate time series. TIME-IMM represents nine distinct types of time series irregularity, categorized into trigger-based, constraint-based, and artifact-based mechanisms. Complementing the dataset, we introduce IMM-TSF, a benchmark library for forecasting on irregular multimodal time series, enabling asynchronous integration and realistic evaluation. IMM-TSF includes specialized fusion modules, including a timestamp-to-text fusion module and a multimodality fusion module, which support both recency-aware averaging and attention-based integration strategies. Empirical results demonstrate that explicitly modeling multimodality on irregular time series data leads to substantial gains in forecasting performance. TIME-IMM and IMM-TSF provide a foundation for advancing time series analysis under real-world conditions.


Unified Transferability Metrics for Time Series Foundation Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

With the increasing number of time series pre-trained models, designing transferability evaluation metrics for time series has become an urgent problem to address. While transferability evaluation has been extensively studied in computer vision, we aim to address a critical gap by developing tailored metrics for time series analysis. In this paper, we introduce TEMPLATE, a transferability estimation framework specifically tailored for versatile time series analysis, comprising three complementary metrics: (1) Dependency Learning Score quantifies a model's capacity to capture temporal dependencies.




What's coming up at #AAAI2026?

AIHub

We (AIhub) will be running a short course on science communication on Wednesday 21 January, from 13:00 - 14:30. In this brief tutorial, science communication experts will teach you how to clearly and concisely explain your research to non-specialists.


Probabilistic Transformer For Time Series Analysis

Neural Information Processing Systems

Generative modeling of multivariate time series has remained challenging partly due to the complex, non-deterministic dynamics across long-distance timesteps. In this paper, we propose deep probabilistic methods that combine state-space models (SSMs) with transformer architectures. In contrast to previously proposed SSMs, our approaches use attention mechanism to model non-Markovian dynamics in the latent space and avoid recurrent neural networks entirely. We also extend our models to include several layers of stochastic variables organized in a hierarchy for further expressiveness. Compared to transformer models, ours are probabilistic, non-autoregressive, and capable of generating diverse long-term forecasts with uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments show that our models consistently outperform competitive baselines on various tasks and datasets, including time series forecasting and human motion prediction.


Towards Interpretable and Trustworthy Time Series Reasoning: A BlueSky Vision

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series reasoning is emerging as the next frontier in temporal analysis, aiming to move beyond pattern recognition towards explicit, interpretable, and trustworthy inference. This paper presents a BlueSky vision built on two complementary directions. One builds robust foundations for time series reasoning, centered on comprehensive temporal understanding, structured multi-step reasoning, and faithful evaluation frameworks. The other advances system-level reasoning, moving beyond language-only explanations by incorporating multi-agent collaboration, multi-modal context, and retrieval-augmented approaches. Together, these directions outline a flexible and extensible framework for advancing time series reasoning, aiming to deliver interpretable and trustworthy temporal intelligence across diverse domains.


Toward Reasoning-Centric Time-Series Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--T raditional time series analysis has long relied on pattern recognition, trained on static and well-established benchmarks. However, in real-world settings - where policies shift, human behavior adapts, and unexpected events unfold - effective analysis must go beyond surface-level trends to uncover the actual forces driving them. The recent rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) presents new opportunities for rethinking time series analysis by integrating multimodal inputs. However, as the use of LLMs becomes popular, we must remain cautious, asking why we use LLMs and how to exploit them effectively . Most existing LLM-based methods still employ their numerical regression ability and ignore their deeper reasoning potential. This paper argues for rethinking time series with LLMs as a reasoning task that prioritizes causal structure and explainability . This shift brings time series analysis closer to human-aligned understanding, enabling transparent and context-aware insights in complex real-world environments. Time series analysis has traditionally been framed as a pattern recognition problem, extracting trends and correlations from observed data.